We assess that executive overreach continues to be the primary driver of authoritarianism in America, exacerbated by President Trump’s apparent diminished mental state. Traditional Trump allies, from Tucker Carlson to former Vice President Mike Pence to MAGA pastor Doug Wilson, have expressed concern over recent actions-notably those linked to actions broadly seen in MAGA circles as blasphemous, and over Trump’s conflict with Iran. Coupled with his lowest poll numbers ever and coming on the heels of additional Democrat victories in redistricting referendums and other electoral races, we assess the foundations of MAGA are beginning to shake. Nonetheless, the federal government remains firmly in the grip of anti-democratic forces.
Executive Overreach and the Weaponization of the State
President Trump participated in a reading of the Bible in conjunction with America’s 250th birthday—a move widely seen as an attempt to blend Christian nationalism with the legend of America’s founding. Ironically, the portion of Scripture read by Trump includes a call to national repentance—a strange choice for a man who has publicly said he has never felt the need to repent personally. This embrace of Christian nationalism, which the Constitution clearly requires any member of the government to avoid if they are acting in their official capacity, comes on the heels of Trump’s Easter Sunday diatribe when the President, using language that would make any dictator proud, chose to post a vulgarity-laden, hate-filled rant on his social media platform demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, ending with “Praise be to Allah.” Suggesting this was not a one-off, a week later Trump took on the Pope, claiming he is “weak on crime” and wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon before sharing a meme depicting himself as Jesus.
Looking to deter dissent, the Department of Justice (DOJ) brought indictments against the Southern Poverty Law Center—a renowned non-profit that has fought for civil rights and against discrimination for decades—for allegedly defrauding donors. The evidence cited is, essentially, that the SPLC paid informants in white supremacist groups for information. DOJ alleges this is tantamount to supporting those groups. Trump, in an interview with 60 Minutes the night after an alleged assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, took this a step further, claiming that a 2017 Unite the Right hate rally in Charlottesville was funded by the SPLC to “make me look bad” and “rig the election.” Strange comment, since he had only been in office a few months.
The FBI investigated a New York Times reporter who wrote an article about the girlfriend of FBI Director Kash Patel, who allegedly received a death threat after the article was published. The FBI was seemingly looking to bring stalking charges, and wanted to search other databases for information that could be used to incriminate and charge the reporter. The DOJ reportedly blocked this attempt. Patel also recently sued The Atlantic over an article that claimed he is frequently drunk on the job.
Suggesting he has no path forward and no clue how to end his conflict with Iran, Trump nonetheless seems to think himself infallible, and on April 13 announced a blockade of any vessel traveling to or from Iranian ports—a move that has led to a near total cessation of all traffic into or out of the Persian Gulf, and a threat from the Trump Administration to destroy any Iranian vessel found to be laying mines in the Strait.
Spirit Airlines, which is trying to emerge from bankruptcy, has alerted the government that its cash reserves are low and it may not survive, seeking a bailout. The Trump Administration is reportedly considering a $500 million bailout in return for a 90 percent stake in the airline.
The DOJ, which has been investigating former CIA Director John Brennan over claims he perjured himself in Congressional testimony related to a 2016 investigation into Russian election interference, withdrew subpoenas to several witnesses to appear before a grand jury, preferring to issue requests for interviews instead. This may suggest a break from former Attorney General Pam Bondi’s aggressive approach to pursuing Trump’s enemies under Acting AG Todd Blanche, but it is too soon to tell.
Weakening Judicial Independence
The State of Virginia passed a referendum approving a constitutional amendment to allow mid-cycle redistricting in response to Texas’ efforts to do the same. A Tazewell County judge immediately claimed the referendum was illegal and issued an injunction to keep the votes from being certified. The State has appealed.
Legislative Weakness
Four Republican senators voted with Democrats to ensure that the SAVE America Act—which would establish barriers to voting for many Americans--did not pass the Senate. Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) had proposed a rule change that would attach many of the SAVE Act’s provisions to a budget reconciliation package, which could then be passed with a simple majority vote.
Undermining Faith in Public Institutions
In an incident that can be described as both blasphemous and constitutionally questionable and continues the trend of misusing matters of faith to score political points, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth quoted a violent passage of “scripture” he claimed was from the book of Ezekiel, but actually came from Quentin Tarantino’s Pulp Fiction. A Pentagon spokesman acknowledged Hegseth’s comments were inspired by the movie. Hegseth also criticized reporters who questioned the war with Iran, calling them “Pharisees” and asserting that they have “hardened hearts” that are “calibrated to impugn.
Because cruelty seems to be the point, the Trump Administration is making plans to transfer 1,100 Afghan refugees who aided US troops during the war in Afghanistan to the Democratic Republic of the Congo—a country torn by conflict and instability. They are also being offered to return to Afghanistan, which would likely be an immediate death sentence. These brave men and women have been stuck in Qatar since 2024, when the Biden Administration promised a path to resettlement in the US if they passed background checks. If Trump follows through with these plans, it will become increasingly difficult for the US military and the intelligence community to secure local nationals to assist us in any capacity in the future.
More than half of America’s college students reportedly attend schools in states in which at least one law or state policy restricts what can be taught, chilling academic freedom across college campuses nationwide and making young people think twice before speaking out on campus.
In a bit of good news, ICE has reportedly told its officers to end warrantless entry and to stop showing up at courts to detain immigrants.
Civil Society/Media
As his cultural revolution continues apace, Trump is stepping up efforts to ensure his presence is felt for years to come. The Administration has taken steps to conceal the identities of donors to the effort to build Trump’s ballroom, giving rise to potential conflicts of interest and security threats. Trump is using his social media platform and friends in the media to drive the narrative that the ballroom is necessary for “national security” in the wake of the WHCD incident, but the real security concern is the conflict of interest caused when undisclosed donors have a financial hold over the president. Additionally, the Trump-appointed panel charged with approving new buildings in Washington DC gave its blessing to the oversized “Arc de Trump” planned near the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery. This is a slap in the face to the nation’s heroes laid to rest at Arlington after fighting to keep the republic free and not under the spell of a dictator.
In the wake of the WHCD incident, Trump blasted 60 Minutes interviewer Norah O’Donnell, reminding her that he has won lawsuits against CBS, likely to intimidate her, and called her “a disgrace” when she read language from the WHCD gunman’s manifesto that seemed to refer to the president–albeit not by name–as a rapist.
Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.
A sober, fact-based rational analysis --- of decidedly irrational times...
Seems to me Trump wanted the strait closed as it punishes many democracies and keeps us from dissenting due to poverty and exhaustion but aids Russia.