Accelerating Authoritarian Dynamics: Assessment of Democratic Decline - Periodic Update

Democracy Sitrep | June 2026

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We assess that President Trump’s failing agenda, failed war with Iran, and flagging public approval numbers are taking a toll on his ego and well-being, and he is increasingly likely to pursue actions meant to replace constitutional governance with authoritarianism. Trump is angry over failed efforts to place his stamp on Washington DC, as demonstrated by his refusal to allow former President John F Kennedy’s name to be seen on his own memorial if Trump’s cannot. He is unable, or unwilling, to process and remedy the impact of his disastrous war with Iran and the looming energy and food crisis that loom later this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. He remains obsessed with this 2020 electoral loss. Perhaps of greater concern is his willingness to blatantly lie to the American public and expect his lie to be believed, as he has regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program, his control over Israel’s actions in Lebanon, the nature of the damage to the National Mall reflecting pool, and so many other issues. Trump seems to be increasingly focused on his personal legacy, which he will do anything to secure, over governing and national security. The turbulent buildup to the midterms remains fast-moving.

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Executive Overreach/Weaponization of the State

Frustrated by his inability to control dynamics surrounding the war he started, President Trump threatened nuclear war and the assassination of Iranian negotiators after tensions spilled over during a new round of talks to permanently resolve issues related to the war with Iran. Trump, ironically at the Palace at Versailles, formally signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that launched a 60-day ceasefire while a final agreement related to Iran’s nuclear program is being negotiated. The agreement commits Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days but grants the right to determine navigation thereafter, to not pursue a nuclear program or nuclear weapons, and allows it to maintain some ballistic missiles. When asked, Trump said that because other countries in the region have ballistic missiles, Iran needed to have some too, noting, “Missiles, they hurt a little location, but they don’t blow up the planet.” Iran has already closed the Strait of Hormuz over Israel’s continued bombing of Lebanon, which also violated the terms of the agreement, even though Israel is not a signatory.

It should be noted that the symbolism surrounding this MOU and its signing is significant: the last agreement signed at Versailles, the Treaty of Versailles, ended WWI, but imposed such draconian conditions on the losers of that war that it inadvertently laid the groundwork for WWII.

Trump is stepping up efforts to exact revenge on his political enemies. He appointed controversial loyalist Bill Pulte, who heads the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and has used that position to attack high-profile critics of Trump, to replace departing Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard. Pulte was confirmed to his FHFA position by the Senate, so he is allowed to serve as acting DNI for 210 days without additional Congressional hearings. This is likely because Trump wants a loyalist in the ODNI to “reveal” some fabricated claim of foreign election interference that would provide cover for a federal takeover of elections before the November midterms. Pulte’s nomination generated significant opposition from even Republicans, prompting Trump to nominate US Attorney Jay Clayton instead; however, Trump cancelled the Senate hearing for Clayton over a dispute with Congress over the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and passage of the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act.

Signaling a willingness to take privacy infringement to a new level, the FCC proposed a rule to require people to show a government-issued photo ID to purchase prepaid phones at convenience stores or big box stores. Currently, no ID is required to make such purchases. The FCC claims this is necessary to rein in harassment, fraud, and other criminal activity, but critics note this will place domestic violence victims and people who are dealing with stalkers at risk, and make it difficult for journalists to reach confidential sources, which is likely a significant motivation for the Administration.

In an attempt to intimidate citizens from engaging in constitutionally protected protest of their government, Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) launched raids on the homes of anti-ICE protesters in Minnesota, citing alleged interference in ICE operations. HSI officials claimed these individuals were members of “antifa” groups, specifically Direct Action Minnesota and Black Cat Workers’ Collective, who “violently oppose immigration law enforcement.” Evidence against these individuals is shaky, but includes their social media posts, in which one individual allegedly mentioned bringing a gun to protests (which is legal in Minnesota), and another said people needed to “become ungovernable,” and the use of Signal to coordinate activities.

The FBI, in what is likely meant to deter get-out-the-vote efforts, raided the office of an Ohio group focused on criminal justice reform, expanding voting rights, and racial justice, taking documents and computer files and questioning staff under the guise of a fraud investigation.

Enraged that NATO allies refused his demands to use their military bases to launch attacks on Iran, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced a six-month review of American forces in Europe. He went on to say the US would spend a record $1.5 trillion to create an “arsenal of freedom” over the coming year. Earlier this month, Hegseth announced the US would not provide an aircraft carrier and its contingent of support vessels, refueling aircraft, and certain fighter jets if the EU found itself in a crisis.

Trump, desperate to leave his mark on DC, is enraged that his pet DC beautification project of the reflecting pool, failed miserably, and turned the National Guard and local police on citizens who stopped to pluck peeling paint from the National Mall reflecting pool, arresting five and ticketing an additional five individuals on vandalism charges. Trump’s decision to grant noncompetitive bids to resurface and reseal the pool and provide cleaning equipment left the reflecting pool full of disgusting green algae. Contractors spent days pouring hydrogen peroxide and other chemicals into the water to eliminate the bloom, to little effect, seemingly unaware that these chemicals would also remove paint. Trump also recently touted his $5 million effort to regild four bronze horse statues near the Lincoln Memorial, which was nearing completion this month. One must wonder how long it will take before they, too, turn green.

Weakening Judicial Independence

In victories for the rule of law, United States District Judge Patrick Schiltz ruled that six grand jury subpoenas issued against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, among others, were “retaliatory and unlawful,” as they were meant to coerce Minnesota officials to comply with ICE activities in the state, and not for any legitimate investigatory practice. Additionally, citing violations of the Privacy Act and the Social Security Act, a federal judge ruled that the Trump Administration must discontinue efforts to create a database of Americans’ private information to help states purge voter rolls. Numerous inaccuracies have been discovered in the database, leading to American citizens’ voter registration being cancelled: the judge noted that labeling US citizens as non-citizens is defamatory.

Legislative Weakness

Prevented from exerting meaningful oversight, Congressional Democrats were granted entry but denied access to detainees at Delaney Hall, a private, 1,000-bed immigration detention center that has been the site of reported abuses and a hunger strike. The State of New Jersey has sued The GEO Group, which operates Delaney Hall under a $1 billion contract, for denying state inspectors access to assess health conditions inside the facility.

Systemic Electoral Flaws

Defying Trump, Congress failed to pass the reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA with the SAVE Act, which would give the Executive Branch unconstitutional authority over elections, attached. Congressional Republicans warn that tying legislation as controversial as SAVE to the much-needed FISA reauthorization is counterproductive and will not result in the passage of either. For now, though, the electronic collection of foreign nationals’ communications outside of the US will continue, as it was reauthorized by a federal court for one year, and collection can continue for the duration of that period even if the legislation has lapsed.

Undermining Faith in Public Institutions

Efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in 2025 to cripple the US government and make the American public demand a pro-MAGA overhaul continue to negatively impact American citizens. Among many other health-related initiatives, DOGE eliminated funding for a project to monitor and contain New World screwworm outbreaks in Latin America. An outbreak was discovered on June 3 and threatens US beef supplies, 12 cases have been detected in Texas and New Mexico. Other states are taking steps to limit the admission of screwworm into their states, including Pennsylvania and Arkansas.

Civil Society/Media

Trump kept a promise to hold a UFC fight on the South Lawn of the White House, a spectacle of violence befitting an authoritarian leader. Holding any for-profit sporting event at the White House is legally questionable, although efforts to use the courts to stop the event were rebuffed, largely because plaintiffs could not show irreparable harm or had waited too long to file. The event was essentially a MAGA festival, not a patriotic celebration of America’s 250^th birthday, as had been claimed, as proven by the horrible slur spewed by one fighter against former First Lady Michelle Obama.

OMB Director Russ Vought has proposed a rule that would give political appointees the ability to veto up to $179 billion in federal grants for scientific research, education, health care, or disaster relief if it were determined that the project, the research institution, or researchers were not sufficiently in line with Trump’s agenda.

Authoritarians need to see their name on everything; it’s a reminder that the state is everywhere, and the leader is the state. So when Trump’s effort to put his stamp on the entertainment world by placing his name on the Kennedy Center was rebuffed by a federal court, which ruled that Trump’s name had to be removed, Trump’s ire was not unexpected. After numerous appeals, Trump’s name did come down; however, he ordered a tarp to remain in front of the Kennedy Center, blocking the Kennedy name from public view and preventing the public from seeing tangible proof that Trump’s authority is not absolute.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.