We assess that the main driver of increasing authoritarianism in America remains executive overreach, compounded by a renewed presidential focus on securing a legacy through any means, but especially through President Trump’s pursuit of vanity projects—including not only his war in Iran but various events linked to America’s 250th birthday. Trump this month convinced a panel he appointed to approve an initiative to put his name on a commemorative coin, dissembled about his choice of White House drapes during a Medal of Honor ceremony, and is moving forward with plans to host a MMA fight on the White House grounds as part of a massive birthday celebration meant to link his 80th birthday (June 14) to America’s.
Executive Overreach and the Weaponization of the State
President Trump’s belief that the presidency affords him unlimited executive power under Article II of the Constitution and his personal quest for a legacy may be exacerbated by perceptions of his own decline. These competing dynamics probably drove him to join Israel’s war against Iran, resulting in strikes that killed an estimated 1,500 Iranians, from the Ayatollah to dozens of schoolgirls. Trump has variously claimed no one anticipated Iran’s primary responses—closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on Persian Gulf countries in which the US has a presence—and that they knew it was a possibility but assessed it to be manageable.
Suggesting he understands his adventures have placed him in a politically diminished state, Trump postponed his planned summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in China, claiming he needed to be available to “oversee the war” with Iran. His oversight needs have not stopped him from spending copious time on the golf course since the war began. Trump is searching for opportunities to raise his standing, oddly claiming he would have the honor of taking Cuba, and could do whatever he wanted with it. He mused about making Venezuela the 51st state, and, always willing to attempt to raise his standing by denigrating someone else, confusedly spoke of California Governor Gavin Newsom as “president” and, referring to his dyslexia, said “I think a president should not have learning disabilities.”
We assess that Trump likely views his war as a grievous error, but, for reasons related to ego and no concept of how to end this conflict, cannot backtrack, preferring instead to attempt to legitimize this war by, for example, claiming he spoke with a former president who said he wished he had bombed Iran (representatives for all four living former presidents say there is no record of such a conversation), and belittling allies about their lack of participation in helping us secure the Straits of Hormuz.
In positive executive branch developments, National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) Director Joe Kent resigned to express his opposition to the war with Iran. Kent lacked the qualifications to run the NCTC and was mired in MAGA and various conspiracy theories and espoused anti-Semitism—and his resignation signals deep rifts within MAGA over Trump’s war in Iran. Additionally, Trump fired Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who lied to Congress about Trump’s knowledge of her expenditure of millions of dollars in an ad campaign ostensibly meant to promote Homeland Security but was widely seen as a vanity campaign positioning herself for a bid for higher office.
Weakening Judicial Independence
Signaling that we will continue to see the Department of Justice (DOJ) adhering to Trump’s whims rather than the rule of law and indicating an awareness that DOJ actions have created difficulties attracting competent prosecutors, Attorney General Pam Bondi has eliminated a requirement that new prosecutors have at least one year of experience practicing law prior to being hired. Highlighting Trump’s interference in DOJ decision-making, after several days of media stories noting the administration had caved after the DOJ dropped its legal argument justifying its decision to boycott certain law firms that had offended Trump, the department reversed its decision and announced it would continue to press its case. Likely expressing sentiments shared by many of his colleagues, US District Judge Zahid Quraishi, frustrated with sloppy prosecutions by the trio of prosecutors replacing (possibly illegally) ousted interim US Attorney Alina Habba in New Jersey, said DOJ has “lost the confidence and the trust of this court”
Legislative Weakness
Congress, and not exclusively Democrats, continues to show indications that members recall the authority the Constitution delegates to it. Congressional Democrats referred Secretary Noem to the DOJ for investigation over allegations she lied in her testimony to both the Senate and House judiciary committees earlier this month when she claimed Trump knew she spent $220 million on an self-aggrandizing ad campaign featuring, among other things, Noem sitting on a horse wearing a cowboy hat. Republicans joined their Democratic colleagues in showing backbone when Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he opposed ending the filibuster to force passage of the SAVE Act—which would establish barriers to voting for many Americans—or a DHS funding bill.
Systemic Electoral Flaws
The Senate is debating Trump’s long-sought SAVE Act, which would place hurdles in front of any American who a) lacks a passport, b) has changed their name, or c) gets booted from their precincts voting rolls. Several Republican states—including Florida, South Dakota, and Utah—are working to pass legislation that requires proof of citizenship, in the event the SAVE Act fails in the Senate. As of this date, it does not appear this legislation will pass. Trump will likely renew his effort to accomplish the goals of SAVE through executive orders and pressure on Republican governors and state legislatures.
Undermining Faith in Public Institutions
Raising questions about America’s commitment to the rule of law, particularly treaties requiring that civilians not be targeted in conflict and that prisoners are treated humanely, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth launched a review of the legal offices across the Pentagon, suggesting a new purge of attorneys and legal advisers is coming. Hegseth claims this will move the Pentagon from “tepid legality” to “maximum lethality,” and, oddly, indicates this will help reduce “moral ambiguity”—as though that were an admirable goal. In one frightening speech, Hegseth warned that the US would give “no quarter” to “our enemies” in the war with Iran. Suggesting Hegseth, a Christian nationalist who holds apocalyptic “end times” views, is prepared to follow through on his “maximum lethality” pledge, military commanders have reportedly been telling troops not to fear a war with Iran, which is necessary to bring about ‘Armegeddon’—prompting more than 200 complaints from members of the military.
Raising questions about the independence of America’s intelligence community, during her Annual Threat Assessment testimony on March 18, DNI Tulsi Gabbard refused to say whether Iran posted an “imminent threat” to the United States, claiming only President Trump can decide that. It should be noted that the job of the intelligence community is to provide warning of threats to American security and national interests.
Civil Society/Media
The Trump Administration continues to put pressure on media outlets, trying to intimidate them into only providing coverage favorable to its agenda. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr demanded that the media tell Trump’s version of how the war in Iran is going, and said stations that share “fake news” may lose their licenses, while Trump said media spreading “fake news” depicting carriers on fire (no US media shared these stories, published on Iranian and Russian media outlets) were guilty of treason.
Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.
This is a serious analytical taxonomy of the rapid descent of American Democracy. Every sentient reader and thinker among us sees it happening at the hands of the President and a couple hundred Republicans who mindlessly cheer him on, while the vast majority of Americans stand by stunned and in utter disbelief.
This is great, and I admire the conciseness and clarity. It feels like a page is missing, though: if you were acting as advisors to a foreign opposition leader/group, what are the concrete steps that civilians could roll out to counter these red flag items?
Obviously your work to screen and endorse candidates is a valuable step, but slow, and small for those of us without large funding reserves we could direct to enough of them to tilt the scales. Not to mention that once elected (if elected) much of their momentum on the ground will be bogged down in the sheer bureaucracy of the role and the learning curve of the DC ecosystem—official and unofficial. Add to that the relatively small role of freshmen, and we can see this is short of what we need to sustain and grow momentum all the way through to 2028 elections.
The stream of informed and insightful papers and posts from your members is also clearly a valuable resource for anchoring perspective and context, but for all too many of the readers, the insight you've passed on dies a quiet death in their brains or there on their desk, because they do not have the experience, expertise, or resources to translate the briefs into action on any kind of real scale.
What can we do to create leverage in the sympathetic locals on the ground that would give them an aura of expertise and credible authority to help them change minds/behaviors of the masses around them? I totally understand that you are not in the position to somehow magically give them experience or resources, but I do think there are several ways you are in a position to give them aura and influence, as well as basic blueprints to growing their influence/impact that would serve a role (in a very limited way) of an advisor in a box that would—on a larger stage—be tasked to an actual advisor on the ground in those communities. While that might seem like a slightly more complicated kind of brief that dies in their heads or on their desks, the option you choose for giving them aura/influence brings it to life and sustains their motivation to take action—in part because if would feel 10x more achievable if they felt connected & supported by organizations like yours.
OK. End of TED Talk. There are three to five ways we could map out a solution that would ignite voters in out-of-balance states like Missouri, if some SS people were curious and willing to talk through, but I also realize how overstretched all the members already must be in times like these. I just don't want to always ask questions and never offer solutions. If nothing else, I learn something from the feedback and actions/results.