We assess with high confidence that the cumulative effect of the Trump Administration’s ongoing actions indicates that democratic backsliding continues. While some institutional resistance exists and may be growing, the trajectory poses both immediate and long-term risks to constitutional order and national security.
The period from January 19—February 22, 2026, began with a significant uptick in authoritarian overreach and ended in a fit of pique as the Supreme Court rejected President Donald Trump’s claimed authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy taxes on a whim. Trump is becoming increasingly incoherent and disconnected from reality—falling asleep during the first meeting of his self-lauded Board of Peace. The broad spectrum of overreach suggests the administration is aware its policies are failing, and is desperate for anything that will a) resonate with the public and boost approval numbers, and b) punish those he judges to be the source of his problems.
Executive Overreach and the Weaponization of the State
Executive branch overreach drives America’s slide toward authoritarianism. In its quest to stifle public dissent against brutal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued administrative subpoenas—which are not issued by a federal judge, but by federal agencies—to social media and tech companies seeking identifying information about people sharing information about ICE activity in their communities, or criticizing Trump. Trump announced on February 19 that he would take $10 billion in federal funds for his Board of Peace—funding not allocated for that purpose by Congress—stating he will use the funds as he deems fit. And Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard allegedly covered up a whistleblower complaint that alleged she hid an intercepted conversation between foreign persons that mentioned someone close to Trump.
The faltering Trump is attempting to appear virile and project strength, risking American security and trying to save face in ways that make the presidency seem petty and small. The Administration launched a massive military buildup in the Middle East—the largest deployment to the region in several decades—in an attempt to press Iran to make a “deal” to end its nuclear weapons program: a decision on whether to attack Iran could come in a matter of days. Embarrassed that an American stationed on a submarine several miles off Greenland was evacuated by Denmark for emergency medical treatment, Trump announced he would deploy a naval hospital ship to Greenland, to provide treatment for the “sick” who are not being cared for, despite the existence of free healthcare and six hospitals serving Greenland’s 50,000 residents.
In true “strongman” form—strongmen typically want their name and image plastered throughout public places, to shore up their personality cult, project power, and intimidate citizens into believing that the state is everywhere—Trump told Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer he would unfreeze funding for a tunnel project connecting New York and New Jersey if Schumer agreed to rename New York’s Penn Station and Washington’s Dulles International Airport after Trump. Reminiscent of authoritarians who have gone before him, two huge banners with Trump’s image were unfurled on the main Department of Justice (DOJ) building in DC.
Always willing to attack the weak to appear strong, The Trump Administration announced it had the authority to detain lawful refugees who have already been extensively vetted via NGOs, the UN, and US security agencies if they have not obtained their green cards within a year. This is clearly an effort to target vulnerable people—largely people of color—as refugees are not by law allowed to apply for a green card until they have been here for a year. This could lead to 200,000 vetted refugees being detained in concentration camps across America; meanwhile, ICE seeks to buy up to 20 warehouses in which to detain migrants.
There were several promising signs as well, as some entities began to push back against the administration’s overreach. The Republican chief election official in West Virginia refused to turn over his state’s voting rolls, defying the DOJ’s demand for these private voting records: DOJ claims it needs the documents to ensure noncitizens are not voting. Pushback against ICE brutality in Minnesota had significant effect, and Border Patrol commander Greg Bovino was removed from Minnesota and replaced by border czar Tom Homan, who quickly announced a drawdown in ICE troops. ICE operations continue but fewer than 500 ICE agents reportedly remain in Minnesota, according to DHS officials. That number is three times the number usually in Minnesota, but the trajectory is in the right direction.
Weakening Judicial Independence
We assess that, under pressure from Trump, the DOJ has slow-walked the Congressionally-mandated release of the Epstein files, likely seeking to protect people in power. During an early February House Judiciary Committee hearing, Attorney General Pam Bondi showed enormous disrespect for victims---many of whom were present at the hearing---was argumentative, and, looking to intimidate those seeking the truth about Epstein’s contacts with the politically powerful, displayed a document containing Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal’s search history as she pursued the Epstein files on congressional computers. In late January, the FBI launched a raid on the Fulton County, GA, election office, claiming probable cause that fraud had occurred in the 2020 election. In a promising sign, Fulton County officials pushed back, asserting that “unsupported by probable cause and dependent on unsubstantiated hypotheticals, Respondent’s seizure violated the Fourth Amendment” and demanding the return of all materials.
Reflecting Trump’s disdain for refugees and immigrants, the 5th Circuit in early February ruled that all migrants, not just convicted criminals or recent arrivals, can be detained while in the process of having their cases adjudicated no matter how long they have lived in the United States. This is a significant shift from how a 30-year old immigration statute has been interpreted and could result in two million immigrants being detained indefinitely, and may be why DHS is buying warehouses in which to detain migrants.
Signs exist that judicial independence largely holds, and an ethics complaint filed by the DOJ after US District Judge James Boasberg privately suggested to several federal judges in March 2025 that the Administration’s disregard for court decisions would trigger a constitutional crisis was dismissed by a federal appeals court in December 2025 in a decision publicized in early February 2026. Additionally, a judge blocked Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s effort to strip Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) of his rank over a video he made with five congressional colleagues reminding our military and intelligence community that they are not obliged to obey illegal orders.
Legislative Weakness
Congress has continued to show some signs of life, and Democrats successfully blocked a DHS funding reauthorization bill over opposition to funding ICE absent significant restrictions on its actions. Unfortunately, ICE is well-funded due to allocations in legislation passed over the summer, so administration officials have little incentive to negotiate or meet Democrats’ demands for a ban on face covering and that judicial warrants be required to enter private homes and businesses. Hope remains alive on the Republican side of the Capitol as well, where six Congressional Republicans voted with Democrats to rescind Trump’s tariffs on Canada, and numerous Republicans condemned a racist video Trump shared on truth social.
Likely trying to woo back support from Republicans who are increasingly opposed to the administration’s brutal immigration crackdown, House Speaker Mike Johnson misused scripture to justify poor treatment of immigrants, suggesting wrongly that the Bible requires assimilation before humane treatment is expected, then denying that the admonition to welcome the immigrant is given to governments as well as individuals. Not to be outdone, Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) tried to appeal to patriotism and the founders in an effort to reclaim the high ground on immigration, claiming (falsely) that President George Washington would have worked for ICE.
Systemic Electoral Flaws
Podcast host Steve Bannon, who has pull with the Trump Administration and the MAGA base, threatened that ICE will patrol voting places. White House Spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt attempted to downplay this possibility but did not deny it. Frustrated with opposition to his effort to thwart the will of the people in the 2026 midterms, Trump threatened to issue an Executive Order requiring voter ID if Congress does not pass the SAVE Act, which would place constraints on the ability of especially women to cast a ballot in elections.
Undermining Faith In Public Institutions
Constantly peeved with institutions of higher learning, especially Harvard, which the Administration claims has violated students’ civil rights, Trump announced a “settlement” with Harvard of $1 billion after the New York Times reported that the White House had abandoned efforts to extort a financial payout. Harvard, however, has rejected any financial payment, and has been focused on negotiating an agreement to establish trade schools.
Civil Society/Media
We assess that Trump is increasingly frustrated by the slow pace of his cultural revolution, and is attempting to bolster progress in ways that permanently change the nature of entertainment and civic life in American. Annoyed by declining revenues sparked by numerous cancellations by artists protesting the addition of Trump’s name to The Kennedy Center, Trump announced the Kennedy Center would be closed for renovations for two years beginning July 4th.The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has asked the media to air patriotic content in the run up to America’s 250th birthday, and one must wonder whether the Trump-lauded Melania documentary will become part of that content. The documentary opened in late January, and has grossed $15.8 million. The film cost Amazon-MGM $75 million, including $40 million paid to Melania.
Having experienced Trump’s commitment to revenge, and specifically fearing retaliation from the FCC, Paramount and CBS refused to allow Stephen Colbert to interview Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico on the air, citing equal time regulations, although CBS claims it only provided “legal guidance” that the Talarico interview could not be aired unless the show offered equal time to rival candidates. Paramount and CBS last year settled a complaint over the editing of an interview with then-presidential candidate Kamala Harris for $16 billion. Finally, Trump demanded Netflix remove former Obama-era National Security Adviser Susan Rice from its board after she said that entities that caved to Trump’s demands would eventually be held accountable. Netflix has ignored this demand.
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