Donald Trump’s Wars

The Steady State | by Charles A. Ray

The ongoing war in Sudan has displaced millions. (Photo by Safal Karki on Unsplash)

During the 2024 presidential campaign, then-candidate Donald Trump boasted that, if elected, he would bring an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war even before he took office, and on more than one occasion said that he would end it within 24 hours of his second term, and, in November 2024, he promised to bring lasting peace to the tumultuous Middle East. Just over six months into his second term, however, he has failed to deliver on either of these promises.

Increasingly, there are signs of Trump’s frustration at Putin for being the barrier to ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Netanyahu for his obduracy on the war in Gaza. One of the reasons for his angst, not often mentioned in the mainstream media, is that failing to end these two conflicts makes it almost impossible for him to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, something he has coveted for a long time, not least of all because his nemesis, Barack Obama, received it when he was president.

Having failed to settle these two disputes, Trump has gone in search of other ‘crises’ to mediate, and to hopefully use them to support a nomination for the award of Peace Prize. According to the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights, there are currently 45 armed conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, over 35 in Sub-Saharan Africa, 21 in Asia, seven in Europe, and six in Latin America. The following are brief analyses of select conflicts, some of which have been on Trump’s mediation menu, and some that have not.

The Russia-Ukraine War. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Trump avoided criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin, even going so far as to call Putin’s moves ‘genius’ and ‘savvy.’ In an Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February 2025, he blamed Ukraine for the war. During the 2024 campaign, citing his good relationship with Putin, Trump pledged to end the war within 24 hours of becoming president. By March, Putin’s continued attacks caused Trump to express his anger and frustration with Putin publicly. After an April 30 minerals deal with Ukraine, which, despite lacking, concrete security guarantees, caused consternation in Moscow, the American president’s position began to shift. On May 25, Trump called Putin ‘crazy’ and threatened new sanctions. By July, Trump was promising more weapons for Ukraine, which would seem—for the moment at least—to signal an end to the Trump-Putin bromance.

The Israel-Hamas Conflict in Gaza. Israel’s assault on Gaza began after a surprise Hamas attack on sites in Israel on October 7, 2023. During a February 5, 2025, meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump shocked the world by saying that the United States would take over Gaza, evict the Palestinians, and convert the Gaza Strip into a US-owned resort area. This proposal was immediately rejected by U.S. allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt. Nearly two years into the war, tens of thousands have died, and much of Gaza is a wasteland. Restrictions on the delivery of humanitarian aid, according to international aid organizations, have created a humanitarian crisis and starvation, a claim that Netanyahu rejects. Trump, in a meeting with UK PM Keir Starmer in Scotland on July 28, disagreed, signaling distance between the two men. How this will affect efforts to end the conflict remains to be seen.

The India-Pakistan Conflict. The May 12, 2025, attack by Pakistani-supported militants in Indian-administered Kashmir led to clashes between the Indian and Pakistani militaries. When the two sides agreed to a ceasefire, Trump claimed that he personally brokered the deal, a claim that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi immediately rejected. The incident has caused tension in the U.S.-India relationship, which is likely to impact trade negotiations between the two countries.

The DRC-Rwanda Dispute. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have been at odds with each other for more than three decades in some of the world’s bloodiest wars, and recently, the eastern DRC was consumed with violence between DRC forces and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group. The Trump administration brokered a deal, supported by Qatar, to achieve a peace treaty between the DRC and Rwanda and a preliminary ceasefire between the M23 and the DRC. While Trump has touted the deal as ‘historic’ and worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize, experts on the region say that the U.S.-led bilateral approach is likely to ‘sow the seeds of repeated conflicts and mass atrocities, and a minerals deal between the U.S. and the DRC could backfire if the security situation in the eastern DRC worsens. The administration also appears not to have considered the history of failed peace initiatives in the region, which may make proclamations of victory premature.

Cambodia and Thailand’s Border Clash. A decades-long border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand evolved into exchanges of fire on July 24, 2025, resulting in 33 deaths and thousands of displaced persons. The Trump Administration threatened to cancel trade talks with the two countries if they didn’t cease hostilities. Leaders of the two countries met in Malaysia and signed a ceasefire after Trump issued the trade threat. Trump almost immediately claimed personal credit, calling himself ‘the President of Peace.’ While it is true that the trade threat impacted the decision of both countries to agree to cease hostilities, Trump’s claim fails to acknowledge that a full-scale war would have been disastrous for both sides. The trade threat provided the perfect face-saving excuse for agreeing to the ceasefire without alienating hardliners in both countries. The underlying causes of the fighting were not addressed, much as they have not been after past battles, leaving the way open for another round of fighting in the future.

These are but five of dozens of conflicts around the globe, and from the foregoing, one can see that their outcomes are far from clear or definite. Short-term victories have been claimed for some, but nothing has been done to address the causes of the conflicts. In the case of Ukraine and Gaza, it appears that the Administration, frustrated at being unable to deliver on its rosy promises, is preparing to wash its hands of the matters and walk away.

If this is peace, may heaven help us. And, I can’t speak for the Nobel Committee, but a cursory review of the incidents mentioned above would lead me to advise against dusting off space on a shelf for the Nobel Peace Prize for the foreseeable future.

Charles A. Ray spent 20 years in the U.S. Army with two tours in Vietnam. He retired as a senior US diplomat, serving 30 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, with assignments as ambassador to the Kingdom of Cambodia and the Republic of Zimbabwe, and was the first American consul general in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. He also served in senior positions with the Department of Defense and is a member of The Steady State.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 290 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.