FREDONIA PROJECT SITREP 5: U.S. POLICY DEVELOPMENTS (31May-8June 2025)
CABLE ID: 2025-0608-FRED/WASH/SITREP-005
CABLE ID: 2025-0608-FRED/WASH/SITREP-005
DATE-TIME GROUP: 081300ZJUNE25
FROM: EMBASSY OF FREDONIA, WASHINGTON, D.C.
TO: MFA NAGADOCHES
CLASSIFICATION: CONFIDENTIAL // FREDONIAN EYES ONLY
SUBJECT: SITREP: U.S. POLICY DEVELOPMENTS (31May-8June 2025)
1. SUMMARY:
IN ACCORDANCE WITH MFA DIRECTIVE 1826-APRIL-1, THIS EMBASSY HAS INITIATED A REGULAR SERIES OF ANALYTICAL DISPATCHES REGARDING THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SERIES, DESIGNATED “THE FREDONIA PROJECT,” WILL BE CIRCULATED UNDER STANDARD SITREP PROTOCOL. UNAUTHORIZED PUBLICATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED VIA THIRD-PARTY ENTITY KNOWN AS “THE STEADY STATE.” PRESUMED LEAK. NO ACTION REQUIRED.
Since President Donald J. Trump took office in January 2025, he has repeatedly tested the limits of executive power and US Democracy. Over the last week, the United States, Fredonia, other democratic allies and the world have continued to feel the effects of executive orders and policy changes Trump has previously put in place. The United States now has to face the legal challenges Trump now poses to current domestic law.
Trade Policy Impacts
Reciprocal Tariff Adjustments: The May 12, 2025, executive order suspends existing tariffs on Chinese imports for 90 days (until mid-August 2025) but imposes a baseline 10% duty on all Chinese goods. While targeting China, this creates supply chain uncertainties for U.S. allies reliant on Chinese manufacturing inputs. Small democracies in the EU and Asia-Pacific may face inflationary pressures from disrupted trade flows.
EU Auto Tariffs: In a May 23, 2025, statement, Trump reiterated plans for 50% tariffs on EU automotive imports unless manufacturers relocate production to the U.S. by late June. This directly affects smaller EU nations like Belgium and Slovakia, which host major auto plants, and could strain diplomatic ties52.
Immigration and Security Pressures
Sanctions on "Sanctuary" Jurisdictions: The April 28, 2025, executive order withholds federal funds from jurisdictions refusing to enforce federal immigration laws. While targeting U.S. cities, it signals to allies like Canada and EU members that cooperation on border security may become a precondition for bilateral agreements, pressuring them to align with stricter U.S. policies.
Military Deployment to Borders: The January 2025 order deploying 1,500 troops to the U.S.-Mexico border sets a precedent for militarized border responses. Small allies contributing to multinational security initiatives (e.g., NATO) may face demands to adopt similar measures, diverting resources from other priorities.
Trump Federalizes California National Guard Troops for Los Angeles
On Saturday night, 7 June 2025, Trump federalized 2000 California National Guard troops ostensibly to deal with the protests in Los Angeles. Neither California Governor Gavin Newsom, LA Mayor Karen Bass and, according to some reports, the Los Angeles Police Department, did not request the troops, and this represents a small move toward using the military without proper authorities by Trump. As of 1300 hours in Washington DC today, troops are likely prohibited to engaging in law enforcement pursuant to US law, Posse Comitatas Act, according to legal scholars.
Also, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said “if violence continues, active duty Marines at Camp Pendleton will also be mobilized-they are on high alert.” To repeat, there has been no request for any military intervention on the part of California’s governor, or the mayor or police chief of Los Angeles.
Democratic Norms and Institutions
Erosion of Checks and Balances: Trump’s March 2025 actions—including attempts to politicize the Justice Department and disregard judicial rulings—undermine U.S. democratic credibility. This weakens America’s moral authority to advocate for democratic governance abroad, complicating partnerships with allies prioritizing rule-of-law frameworks.
Representative Bacon from Nebraska Stands Up: Don Bacon, a five term Republican representative from Nebraska has been increasingly vocal in his opposition to Trump, saying this week that he would not “follow his party ‘off the cliff.’” Bacon has previously voiced his opposition to Trump; this new statement is seen by some in the political establishment as a change. Reason to hope? We don’t know yet.
Ambassador’s Strategic Recommendations for Allies
Diversify Trade Partnerships: Reduce dependency on U.S. markets amid tariff volatility.
Strengthen Regional Alliances: Counterbalance U.S. unpredictability through EU or ASEAN coordination.
Advocate for Multilateral Frameworks: Reinforce institutions like the WTO to mitigate unilateral U.S. trade actions.
Conclusion
Trump continues to move to threaten US democracy with autocracy. Democratic governors and legislators around the country are joined now by one sitting Republican Congressman, : might this signal a change in the country? Might this inspire other Republicans? Fredonia’s Ambassador and Embassy staff in Washington will follow this closely and report back.