Growing US Vulnerability Under Trump: Chinese and Russian Perceptions

The Steady State | by Robert Bruce Adolph

There are four classical elements of national strategic power: Military, diplomatic, economic, and informational. In all four, the US is losing ground in the second Trump administration. There is a fifth element worthy of consideration, Reputational, which I will also address. From the perspectives of our near-peer adversaries, China and Russia, the current White House occupant is a “useful idiot.” Let’s look at these elements to see why.

Military

America’s military is the most powerful in the world. Few doubt it, especially Putin and Xi. Neither is interested in taking on the US Armed Forces directly. Both have shown a preference to take the indirect approach, sometimes called Gray Zone Warfare, exploiting their intelligence, cyber, and diplomatic services, which are sometimes indistinguishable from one another. Mr. Trump, by making it his stated national security policy to focus on his hemisphere, also gave both a gift: China regarding Taiwan and Russia regarding all matters concerning Ukraine. Moreover, this commander-in-chief has chosen to use the martial cudgel recently on only two oil-rich nations, Iran and Venezuela. One wonders if Nigeria, another oil-rich nation, is next on his list. This president is nothing if not transactional. Another worrying matter, this chief executive just permitted the START Treaty with Russia to expire on the 5^th of February. In typical fashion, Mr. Trump trashed the treaty without proposing an alternative. Now, the two signatories may begin testing nuclear weapons again, perhaps sparking a new arms race. The UN’s Secretary General said that this “…marks a grave moment for international peace and security.”

Diplomatic

This Oval Office has appointed a considerable number of unqualified people to ambassadorial status; his son’s former girlfriend is merely one of the more notable. At the same time, Mr. Trump removed many of the Department of State’s (DoS) best and brightest from its rolls. Over 1,300 career diplomats and support personnel were summarily fired when he took office, further weakening a critically important function that was already understaffed. Also, the shuttering of USAID destroyed America’s most successful source of soft power diplomacy, which will eventually condemn hundreds of thousands to death. This administration’s refusal to pay its UN dues, withdrawal from over 60 associated functions, and promotion of the alternative Board of Peace in Gaza have severely undermined the world’s best-known international organization, a body that was largely created by America in the wake of World War II. Finally, it is disturbing that this White House is only now seeking a nuclear deal with Iran. Such a deal was previously accomplished by the Obama Administration, which this president blew up in his first term.

Economic

Although this chief executive made multiple promises of a soon-to-be improved economy while on the campaign trail, there are few if any indicators supporting that assertion. His continuing misuse of tariffs raised the prices of most necessities. Wages are stagnant. The housing market is in freefall. Consumer debt is high. The dollar has steadily lost ground against the Euro since he came to office. The singular bit of good news does not benefit the public, but only owners of the mega-corporations, which this Oval Office favored with massive tax breaks. The result is that the nation is closing in on 40 trillion dollars in debt, more than the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Such massive debt is unsustainable. China may soon overtake America as the largest economy in the world.

Informational

One of the most effective information tools of American statecraft in the international arena used to be the Voice of America (VOA). The Trump Administration fired most of the VOA staff, while severely curtailing their programming. The organization’s future, if any, is being fought out in the courts. This leaves the current airwaves open for both Russian and Chinese influence campaigns. At a time of great uncertainty, this administration continues to reduce the number of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) personnel. Solid intelligence is more important than ever before, but apparently not to this White House. One is compelled to wonder why?

Russian Special Case?

Russia may not just be exploiting American vulnerabilities, their intelligence services likely helped create them. This Oval Office occupant demonstrates all the earmarks of being a Russian asset. This president treats the Russian tyrant as admirable. This president parrots every Moscow demand made in negotiations concerning the war in Ukraine. Politico Magazine, way back in 2017, tied this president, his family, and multiple close associates to Russia and Putin. It has been suggested that while Mr. Trump is in office, Americans need not fear Russian nuclear-tipped missiles. Mr. Putin already exercises considerable influence over decision-making in this White House.

Reputational

Traditionally, reputation is not considered to be a component of national power. In this case, though, it might be as important as all the rest. Following the end of WWII, America and her allies built the rules-based order. The US was accepted as leader of the Free World, not just because of its military capacity, but because of its adherence to law and shared values. The nation engaged in writing the Geneva Conventions and in prosecuting war crimes committed by both Germany and Japan. The Marshall Plan that followed deserves credit for helping to rebuild Western Europe. Later, and as a NATO stalwart throughout the Cold War, America was instrumental in the organization’s ultimate success in containing Communism. Today, and for many of the reasons stated above, that hard-won reputation is in tatters. As a result, nobody trusts this president. Regrettably, trust in the American people who twice put him in office has also been badly degraded.

The case is clear. America is far weaker today because of the election of Mr. Trump. The US military, although powerful, is misdirected, perhaps illegally so. Allowing START to expire was an unbelievably bad idea. Another nuclear arms race is in nobody’s interest. Firing DoS diplomats and support personnel degrades the US’s ability to negotiate with friends and foes alike. Shutting down USAID was a terrible decision, resulting in the likely deaths of hundreds of thousands. It was unquestionably our best means of soft power diplomacy. The same is true for closing the doors on the VOA. CIA personnel reductions implemented by this president are a horrible notion. America’s near-peer rivals, China and Russia, no doubt and privately appreciate it all. Is Mr. Trump a Russian asset? I suspect that the professionals within the US clandestine services will not be surprised if this assertion is later proven beyond a reasonable doubt. That truth, of course, will not be forthcoming while he sits behind the storied Resolute Desk, a useful idiot indeed.

Robert Bruce Adolph , a qualified Military Strategist,is a retired senior US Army Special Forces soldier. He holds graduate degrees in both National Security Studies & International Affairs and was formally trained as a counterintelligence special agent. Robert also taught university level courses in American Government, US History, and World Politics. Following his retirement from the active military, he joined the UN, subsequently seeing service in Sierra Leone, Yemen, Iraq, Egypt, Israel/Palestine, Indonesia and more, culminating in the role of Chief of the Middle East and North Africa at UN Headquarters in New York. He is a member of The Steady State

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 360 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.