Sliding into Authoritarianism The Indicators Are There For All To See
The Steady State | by Charles A. Ray
On this Independence Day, A Call to Reflection
During my 20-year military career, I served as an intelligence officer, where my primary mission was to analyze collected information to discern indications that revealed an adversary or target entity’s plans and/or intentions. Indicators are items of information that reflect the intention or capability of an adversary to adopt or reject a course of action, using historical data to expose trends. After my military service, I spent 30 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, and in my overseas diplomatic assignments, I found the techniques of indicator analysis that I used in intelligence analysis just as useful in predicting or describing the plans and actions of the governments in the countries where I was posted.
Such analysis was quite helpful, for example, in assessing the tendency toward authoritarianism or its reverse. When I served in Sierra Leone from 1993 to 1996, for instance, I was able to successfully predict the West African nation’s readiness for democratic elections in 1996 even though it was governed at the time by a military junta that had come to power in a coup d'état in 1992. I also correctly predicted that the nascent democracy would remain fragile for a long time, despite the elections.
The current situation in the United States has revived memories of my time in West Africa, inspiring me to ask: Is it possible that an established democracy like the United States could become authoritarian? As difficult as this may be for many to imagine and contemplate, a thorough review by every citizen in this country of the indicators pointing to a transition from democracy to autocracy is warranted.
Autocratic leadership is characterized by individual control of decision-making, where leaders make decisions based on their ideas and judgments, and rarely accept advice from subordinates. Autocracies have existed for ages, when kings, emperors, and chiefs ruled over large populations, and still exist today in the form of absolute monarchies and dictatorships. Such governments lack leadership accountability, have no checks and balances, and have no constitutional or legal limits on the leader’s power.
The following are characteristics ( indicators) of authoritarianism:
Concentration of power: All political power is in the hands of a single individual.
Lack of political pluralism: Opposition political parties or ideologies are absent or neutralized.
Repression: Through legal or extralegal means, dissent and freedom of expression is suppressed.
Corruption: Because power is unchecked, there are often high levels of corruption.
Personality Cult: A cult of personality is often cultivated, with the leader insisting on absolute personal loyalty.
In evaluating these indicators, it must be kept in mind that the presence of all is not necessarily indicative of a move toward autocracy in all cases—especially in mature democracies. But, it is also possible that a nation can be shifting in that direction without all five of the above indicators being present. It is also possible, as happened in Hungary under the rule of Viktor Orban, for an autocrat to use the mechanisms of democracy itself to come to power and establish effective one-man rule.
An assessment of the presence of indicators pointing toward autocracy is not necessarily a prediction of a move toward authoritarianism, but it should be taken as a warning, and notice of a situation requiring attentiveness from the electorate, further analysis and careful review.
Charles A. Ray spent 20 years in the U.S. Army with two tours in Vietnam. He retired as a senior US diplomat, serving 30 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, with assignments as ambassador to the Kingdom of Cambodia and the Republic of Zimbabwe, and was the first American consul general in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. He also served in senior positions with the Department of Defense and is a member of The Steady State.
Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 290 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.