“Trumpland”

The Steady State | by Greg Rushford

As the fourth anniversary of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the Russian strongman has been suffering the consequences of his classic intelligence failure. Instead of his anticipated cakewalk, Putin has been bogged down in a bloody war of attrition --- an estimated 1.1 million Russian casualties, plus another 400,000-some Ukrainian wounded or killed. Putin had aimed to weaken NATO, not strengthen the Western military alliance that has stood against Russian aggression since1949. NATO has even added two new determined neighboring countries, Sweden and Finland, which have been busy strengthening defenses in northern sea lanes.

Now, Putin must be delighted that America’s president, Donald Trump who, having publicly welcomed Putin’s covert measures on his behalf during his 2016 presidential campaign, is again proving useful. The American president has embarked upon a course of action that seriously threatens NATO’s survival, leaving the Russian Army free to continue to grind Ukraine down, and looking ahead to future military adventures in, say, Baltic countries and Scandinavian waters that Peter the Great once enjoyed.

As numerous unnerving headlines have been screaming, Trump threatens to wrest control of the strategically important island of Greenland, positioned between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, from our NATO ally, Denmark. If the Danes won’t sell their semi-autonomous territory, whose 56,000 residents are European Union citizens, Trump vows to seize it. (Never mind the absurdity: America has enjoyed free rein in Greenland’s defense throughout our lifetimes.)

Why? Imagine the American map in the president’s eye: “Greenland” morphs into “Trumpland” --- a historic triumph trumping (pardon me!) Thomas Jefferson’s Louisiana Purchase. Not to mention the potential lucrative commercial opportunities: The business pages have speculated on the usual familiar MAGA names, including Donald Trump, Jr., Devin Nunes, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk.

Outraged, the Danes and Greenlanders have poured into the streets, saying they cannot believe an American president would even think such things. Denmark has been supported by fellow NATO allies, including Norway, Sweden, France, and Germany, in subtle-but-significant moves to beef up their military presence on Greenland to defend it from America!!

Unimpressed, Trump has said America’s European allies are playing a “very dangerous game,” threatening to punish them with crippling tariffs. Infuriated, NATO allies are talking about 1930’s-style trade retaliations involving $100-plus billion in punitive tariffs on American exports. This time, they vow, they will not bow to American bullying. Once again, the dictator in the Kremlin has to be smiling, especially at the prospect of Trump walking out of Nato and abandoning Ukraine.

The world will find out more this Wednesday, when Trump will address the World Economic Forum’s annual meetings of the world’s great-and-good in Davos, Switzerland. NATO’s Secretary General, top European political and economic leaders, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be in the Swiss resort this week.

This week in Davos looks to be a historical moment, playing out in real time. Possibly this time the Europeans will (finally) stand up to American bullying. But if they do, that would quite likely play into Putin’s hands ---the threat that is always lurking with Trump, his Vice President, J.D. Vance, and White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, to walk away from NATO.

A good guess is that the Europeans will try to find a way to advance the Trump crowd’s fortunes, not just involving Greenland but in future reconstruction contracts in Ukraine, should a peace deal actually emerge.

But this guesstimate is very tricky business.

On one hand, Trump has repeatedly shown he doesn’t care about Ukraine, in the Western moral tradition of resisting aggression from Moscow. Remember Trump’s 28-point “peace” plan for Ukraine, on Moscow’s terms, aimed at Kyiv’s capitulation? And in recent days, Trump has again blamed Zelensky for being the obstacle to a lasting peace deal.

But on the other hand, Trump also appears very much invested in his self-image of being a peacemaker, and throwing Ukraine to The Bear would mark Trump as a loser. So, the Europeans who will be looking to manipulate Trump in Davos this week might have some diplomatic and psychological leverage.

There’s a final observation to be made concerning the prospect of American bullying of Denmark and Greenland, which have long histories of helping Western democracies. It was weather stations on Greenland, controlled by Allied intelligence during World War II, that provided the clear-weather window that Dwight Eisenhower used to launch the successful invasion across the English Channel on D-Day, 1944. And throughout the Cold War, Danish intelligence, along with the Brits and other NATO allies, were there to help protect Central Europe, and America, in too many historical episodes to mention in this space.

Now, America’s friends deserve better.

Greg Rushford ran congressional investigations involving Soviet aggression in the 1970s as a staff member of the House Appropriations and Intelligence committees and is a former Washington journalist. He is a member of The Steady State.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 360 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.